Gonçalo Esteves / capable under pressure

THE IDEAS REGISTER

Every idea, kept. Take one.

Each week the show throws off ideas, and I do not build them. I write them down with the cheapest experiment that would tell me something, and I leave them here. Generating is free. The mistake is generating with nowhere to revisit. If one of these is yours to run, run it, and tell me what happened. Once a month I read the outcome column back, and that is an episode.

RULE 1

Ideas are unlimited

Nothing here is deleted. "Dropped" means tried or considered, and here is what happened.

RULE 2

Builds are one

Exactly one project holds the build slot at a time. An idea does not have to become a project to survive.

RULE 3

Every idea has an experiment

The cheapest thing that would tell me something. Seconds to write, usually an evening to run.

RULE 4

Statuses are results

open 37 · open — promised on air 2026-09-11 1

38 of 38

Moonshots with Peter Diamandis

11 Sept 2026 1 ideas
show-01

A visual interpretation of what connects across episodes

pull what was said on tape (claims, numbers, people, positions) and show how it links across five, ten, fifty episodes: who said what first, what came back, what changed. The vault graph is the seed; this is the version built from the tape itself

The experiment

Too early to build. First: tag the per-episode decompositions consistently (entity · claim · date · speaker) for four more episodes, then see whether the cross-episode links are worth drawing. If a plain table already shows the pattern, the visual can wait

TOOL TO LEARN open for GForce
outcome · Parked on purpose, 2026-09-11: "probably too early… there will be nodes of this."

NASA Open Science

10 Sept 2026 3 ideas
OS-01

Run the NASA–IBM Lunar Foundation Model ourselves

nasa-ibm-ai4science/NASA-IBM-Lunar-Foundation-Model

The experiment

Read the technical report, run the ice-detection task on its SOMBench data, compare with IBM's "22% lower error" claim. Report on #3.

NAME ON IT open — promised on air 2026-09-11 for GForce
OS-02

INDUS-SDE as a research engine

NASA's science-discovery language model over 600K+ documents (nasa-impact/indus-sde-v0.2)

The experiment

Give it the five LEIA areas as queries; see whether it surfaces the right NASA literature faster than keyword search

TOOL TO LEARN open for GForce
OS-03

A LEIA entry, scoped small

one of the five areas under a US-led team

The experiment

Read the SAM.gov text; write the one-page "should a small team enter?" using the challenge method. Due Oct 8.

BUSINESS open for GForce
284-01

The agentic curriculum

model-based systems engineering applied to the Krav syllabus @1:07:37. "Why isn't my curriculum agentic in the sense that everyone can consult it, can talk with it, can view it? … The same way you'd introduce a change to a car — where are the parts that it touches?"

The experiment

Take one belt level, write it as a system with dependencies, and ask one instructor a question the document should be able to answer. An evening, not a month

NAME ON IT open for SD4ALL / GForce
outcome · ⚠️ This is a build and the slot is held by Do Not Die On The MatACTIVE. It stays here until the slot is deliberately swapped
284-02

Libraries as AI centres

@1:22:31 — refurbish public libraries into AI education places. He proposed it independently; the library is already in CNN's list of what Quincy's data-centre tax revenue built

The experiment

Content first, and it is the best segment on the tape. Pair it with Drammen (Norway) and Barreiro (Portugal), which he already knows

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · ⭐ The precedent was inside the episode he was reacting to. That is the whole show in one beat
284-03

Reverse BOM from SEC filings

@0:00 — build the bill of materials, then run it backwards off mandatory filings "because filings that are due to scrutiny" beat social media

The experiment

Do it once, publicly, on one company. The method is the asset, not the number

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · The transferable technique. Recurs with the idiot-index piece already published → NVIDIA
284-04

Biomechanically correct video

@24:25 — "a digital twin of your ability to move"; centre of mass, feet, arms

The experiment

Pose estimation on his own footage, not generated video. YOLO pose is already installed on the studio M2

TOOL TO LEARN open for GForce / SD4ALL
outcome · Downstream of Embodied AI. ⚠️ Generated video is atmosphere, not technique — a generated dojo already rendered a named throw wrong
284-05

Open-weight models so the data stays yours

"Do I continue using the tools that I have, or do I go and search for open-source, open-weight models that do not take my data?"

The experiment

Name the three tools where studio data actually leaves. Then price the swap for one of them

TOOL TO LEARN open for any
outcome · The operator's half of the adversarial thesis, and it is answerable this month
283-01

Client-matching engine for AJC

built from the dating-matchmaking segment @1:10:16 — same market-awareness approach, pointed at helping clients find the right person to connect with ⚠️(see README)

The experiment

Take 10 current AJC clients, hand-match them by the criteria the segment describes, ask Ana whether the matches are ones she'd have made

BUSINESS open for AJC
283-02

Agent swarm for a one-person content pipeline

Emad runs 18 Grokbots in parallel @22:58

The experiment

Stand up 3, not 18: one for transcript pulls, one for caption QA, one for the register. Measure whether review time drops or rises

TOOL TO LEARN open for GForce
283-03

Route cheap Chinese open models for the bulk work

GLM flash at ~10× cheaper for the same performance @36:28

The experiment

Run one month of transcript cleanup on both, compare cost and error rate on a scored sample

TOOL TO LEARN open for any
283-04

"The humans became the bottleneck"

the WSJ 10-day-work-week finding @1:20:02 is his own review-debt gate described from the abundance side

The experiment

This is not a build. It is the strongest story anchor on the tape

CONTENT open for GForce
283-05

Buy-the-cheap-stack vs build-your-own

from Waymo OEMing Chinese hardware @1:38:36

The experiment

Content. Pair it with a decision he actually faced this year

CONTENT open for GForce

Moonshots 274 — Jared Isaacman

27 Jul 2026 4 ideas
274-01

Track the administrator, not the news

@NASAAdmin states policy weeks before it becomes a solicitation with a deadline

The experiment

Log every @NASAAdmin policy post and the date the matching SAM.gov notice appears. After a month you have the lead time — that is a publishable number nobody else has

NAME ON IT open for GForce
outcome · The measurable version of "follow Isaacman"
274-02

The orbital data centre demand chain, drawn

The experiment

One diagram: AI compute → orbital data centres → launch demand → $/kg → lunar mass. Put his own quotes on the arrows. Site + LinkedIn

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · His thesis, in his words, which is why it is defensible
274-03

NASA prizes as the product's front door

The experiment

He is "very open" to more prize competitions. Watch America COMPETES prize authority announcements; a new prize is the launch event for how to win a NASA challenge

BUSINESS open for GForce
outcome · Direct line from the administrator to the course
274-04

"What the taxpayer already bought"

the Perseverance spare at JPL, ~$0.5B, idle

The experiment

A reuse-first audit as a repeatable format: what is already paid for and sitting still, here and elsewhere

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · His instinct, generalised

Moonshots 266 — Planet Labs

26 Jun 2026 20 ideas
266-01

Embodied AI for martial arts

what sensors does a model need to understand movement

The experiment

One technique, one student, one sensor set; does the model's judgement match his?

NAME ON IT open for GForce
outcome · The one the 06-28 analysis kept. Already the R&D horizon of Do Not Die On The Mat. See What sensors does a model need in order to understand the physical world?
266-02

Taxonomy of fighting

Planet's ~3,000 Earth layers prompted "what's the organisation of fighting?"

The experiment

Write the top two levels for one system he teaches. If it takes an evening it is content; if it takes a month it is a project

NAME ON IT open for GForce
outcome · Downstream of 266-01
266-03

Local vs frontier model router

a written rule for which model does which job

The experiment

Log every model call for a week, then write the rule the log implies

TOOL TO LEARN open for any
outcome · 🔶 The one he would actually use. Costs a weekend, opens no company
266-04

Fire-spread app

for departments and municipalities

The experiment

Call two NJ fire chiefs and ask what they currently lack. Free

BUSINESS open for any
outcome · Others have real edge here
266-05

Commodity / container tracker

from satellite imagery

The experiment

None worth running — hedge funds are already on the Planet API

BUSINESS open for any
266-06

Data-centre location prediction

as a service

The experiment

Ask one NJ developer whether they'd pay for it

BUSINESS open for any
266-07

3D printing for space, and in space

The experiment

CONTENT open for any
outcome · Real, no path from his chair
266-08

Dyson swarm explainer

"what does a Dyson swarm mean for a day-to-day person?"

The experiment

Write it. One page

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · Recurs in every Moonshots episode
266-09

Operator pages

Eric Schmidt, Elon: what they know about organisations, for operators

The experiment

One page, see if anyone reads it

CONTENT open for GForce
266-10

Build your own ORAN

an index on how AI labs spend capital

The experiment

BUSINESS open for any
outcome · No unfair input, no capital
266-11

Alternative launch architectures

elevators, spin launch, air-launch

The experiment

The idiot-index treatment on one of them

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · Space lens, genuinely his
266-12

Image-provenance ledger

"how do we know the image is true?"

The experiment

BUSINESS open for any
outcome · Real problem, not his
266-13

Satellite architecture comparison

Doves and Pelicans vs Starlink

The experiment

Public CAD and spec sheets; one diagram

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · He asked for this explicitly
266-14

The three space KPIs

launch cost/kg, bytes-per-kg, flops-per-watt, charted over time

The experiment

Build the chart. He asked for it twice on the tape

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · Strong recurring-segment candidate
266-15

Property valuation from satellite history

the "EV toll", where to buy

The experiment

BUSINESS open for any
266-16

Crop / agriculture 10×

via his contact at the Portuguese Agricultural Association

The experiment

One call. He already has the relationship

BUSINESS open for any
outcome · Cheapest real test on the list
266-17

A contest on Planet Labs data

"what can we do with this?"

The experiment

Ask Will Marshall what they need help with — see will marshall

CONTENT open for GForce
266-18

Interview Will Marshall from the small-business chair

"how can Planet Labs help people building small businesses?"

The experiment

Send the ask. The loop is already open, no reply logged

CONTENT open for GForce
outcome · The question the Moonshots panel structurally cannot ask
266-19

Project Suncatcher deep-dive

"this deserves a whole episode, nobody explains it in detail"

The experiment

Research pass, then one episode

CONTENT open for GForce
266-20

Predictive "where to live" model

schools, streets, weather, population, forward-looking

The experiment

BUSINESS open for any